Gambari: Any memo to the President on the Brimming Third World War?
By Jimoh Ibrahim OFR, CFR.
The realist thinks war is points taken too far.’ Wars happen, and that is that’ there is no morality in the sense of preparing against aggression in statism and resulting in self-help what is critical is survival. Human nature itself holds the key to understanding war and conflict. Human nature is uncoordinated, and each state must rely on its power to defend itself against any other country in the international system. Why should China think about the biological weapon of COVID 19 at this time in human history? Sir Micheal Howard’ War is organized violence carried on by political unites against another’ the state must celebrate war given her exclusive opportunities to organize material resources needed to fight a protracted war. There are three options for China to control the global power system unilaterally or agree to do with one other powerful state in a bipolar arrangement or do so with more than three states multi-polar engagement. And, making an option has its effects. When the European countries came together to control the global system, we got, in the end, the first world war.
The First World war echoes all forms of imperialism and shares the treasury of the gains of colonialism or, better still, to settle for alliances. In the bipolar power balance game after the second world war between the USA and the USSR, we got the cold war. And the submerge of USSR. So, the USA’s success in the Cold war, the assumption of the Unipolar power system, was not all for celebration. The victory came with the crises that went global, for instance, the 2008 financial crises and the 9/11 response to the democratization policy of the USA the hegemon between 1991 and 2001, has substantial control of international social norms and praxis, rules and influence, and the institution of the geocentric world. And, more importantly, is the USA democratic peace theory. In working together with three or more superpowers for the peace for the global political system, we got the Syria war. Is one interesting question central to global politics is that in the face of the balance of power, who is in charge of the global system? Who is the superpower of the world? In the current situation and for a very long time, it is the Western Block of the USA and European nations.
Ogunsaki contended that wars are likely to occur when an international society experiences a decisive shift from one high power to another. Will the power ever shift from Western Block to far East China? The possible questions and answers if China think Yes, and that this is the better time! China has money controlling about 20% of the Global GDP. Can this be achieved alone without Military power? China thinks not likely she cannot claim to have the military investment and skills of the Western Block in war matters? What option left? A new strategy NOT of nuclear war or the traditional approach of ballistic missiles and a nuclear weapon is in need imperative. If we find a shred of biological evidence, we spend less and get the power. We can run a test of a COVID 19 biological weapon, and if the world is lockdown for six to one year, it may mean so much and a call for discussions or an ought right war at least we are sure with COVID 19 we can win. There is no straight answer as to win or lose a war for China; the data is secretive.
The professors at Oxford University believe that China is a bulbul going to bust soon. The Cambridge professors say with lots of public companies not privatize in China and massive investment in infrastructure. China is the leading global system. The professors in LSE believe; Yes, Powershift, and the dead of the West? Not yet! They submitted that despite the crises in the West, it is not however, to say hurray. The combined GDP of the USA and Europe $28 trillion is far above $8.8 trillion in China. So, where is China leading the world ambition coming from? Is Western Block going to respond if COVID 19 is a biological weapon? Yes! The gathering of information on COVID 19 by the western Block continues, details on when the pandemic occurs? When did China inform the world? What is the trajectory of the epidemic, and where is the diagnostic report of the first victim? What does the WHO know about it? And as the FBI investigates the conspiracy theory, I can only hope it is not another miscalculation like Britain did when examining the actions of Germany, which action lead to the first world war. God forbid another loss of 16million lives like the first world war.
If China becomes innocent as charge, I can only hope this is not another Spanish virus (H1 N1) of 1918 that killed 50 million people (one-fifth of the world population then). Now that the world economy is depressing geometrically. What efforts can bring the economy back? Or we get prepared for the inevitable third world war which may resolve some of the convergence of complexities that arrest international peace, after the war, we start a new world again, with development and greater peace. Some say we need war now! ‘The sport of the kings.’ war is fought in the interest of the hegemons. The emperors and it has been called ‘a rocket fought for the interest of the industrialists and financiers’ politics by other means.’ Unfortunately, those who want peace to do not support a structural war, and what is more, like Cicero (106-43) says I prefer the most unfair peace to the most righteous war! Nevertheless, a brimming third world war may be imperative if it is to resolve some of the convergence of complexities around the unity of the geocentric world. If it becomes inevitable, is Nigeria going to benefit more querying on the back of China (at least considering our loans from China), or as usual, we stay with the western world. What is the Chief of staff recommending?